Follow us on Twitter

www.twitter.com/playtheraces www.twitter.com/playtheraces


Thursday, November 3, 2011

Breeders' Cup 2011


I will be tweeting throughout the day Friday and Saturday www.twitter.com/playtheraces but I thought I would add a little additional commentary here.

Let's get started:

Juvenile Sprint

As many have already noted this is a surprisingly weak field given the purse size. Secret Circle looks extremely hard to beat. He's been ridden out twice and has a sizable Beyer speed figure advantage for horses that have run on a fast surface. Seeker put up a nice figure but it was on a sloppy track. There are a couple of good options for those exotic players out there. I will be using Jake Mo in all exotics. Jake Mo came back off a three month layoff and ran a decent 3rd against a contentious bunch at Remington. I like the outside draw and I think he will get a good stalking trip. Similarly I think Blacky the Bull gets a good trip in this spot. The race seems loaded with speed and Blacky had a nice win off the pace at Santa Anita. Shumoos is a European invader, cost $375,000 and attacts Gomez and 1st lasix but I'm not sure he can keep up.
Final Selections:

Secret Circle
Jake Mo
Blacky the Bull
Seeker

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Somali Lemonade's 1st two races were really fun to watch. She passed everybody last time out at Keeneland. Because of her come from behind style it is unlikely that the 14 post position will be much of a hindrance. There are 3 Europeans in here and I give them all a big shot: Elusive Kate, Dear Lavinia and Up. Elusive Kate has won four in a row, Dear Lavinia was within 2 lengths of her at the end of July and Up is lightly raced with a lot of upside. Pardon the pun. I'm not crazy about the rest of the Americans in here. Customer Base is the only other US horse I give much consideration. She's 2 for 2, nice work over the course and it wouldn't be the first time Tom Proctor had one ready to go first time on the grass.
Final Selections

Elusive Kate
Dear Lavinia
Somali Lemonade
Customer Base

Filly and Mare Sprint

Turbulent Descent and Switch should both take a lot of money in this spot and rightfully so. They are both classy and consistent. In terms of others to consider, Pomeroys Pistol comes off a nice win last time out at Belmont. The lack of a triple digit Beyer is of some concern though. Tar Heel Mom has run a couple of huge races in the past. She has excuses for her last two races and is worth consideration in exotic plays.
Final Selections

Switch
Turbulent Descent
Tar Heel Mom
Pomeroys Pistol

Juvenile Fillies

From my perspective there are only four horses that can win in this spot: Grace Hall, My Miss Aurelia, Northern Passion and Weemissfrankie. The combined record of these four are 12 starts, 11 wins, 1 second. Miss Netta I will also use in intra-race exotics. She's lightly raced, showed talent and should like the distance.
Final Selections:

My Miss Aurelia
Northern Passion
Grace Hall
Weemissfrankie
Miss Netta

Filly and Mare Turf

There are 3 European invaders in here and I think each of them merits a long look. Stacelita will get the most support of those that have raced in America. Inside speed on the turf course can be dangerous at Churchill. I think Dubawi Heights could run a huge race at big odds if she can get settled on the lead. She's coming off a G1 win in the Yellow Ribbon and I expect her to improve a little bit off that start. Announce is the most intimidating of the Europeans. She lost by a nose last out to Nahrain but as a 4 year old, she seems seasoned and should be hard to hold off at this distance. Interesting to note that Shared Account won this race last year at 46-1, she'll be huge odds again and all indications are she's doing great.

Final Selections

Dubawi Heights
Announce
Misty for Me
Stacelita

Ladies' Classic

I know some have thought this race is a little weak when compared to years past and while they may be right I think this is a great betting race. I don't see a single toss when considering tris/supers. To me there are really two win candidates. I've been telling myself for weeks that Royal Delta is going to run huge in the Ladies' Classic and she's been training phenomenally. I think she will run a big race, but she's not my top choice here. I'm going with Miss Match. Miss Match has taken on the boys in her last two starts. She's making her second start after a 3 month layoff. She's experienced, consistent, solid at the distance and should get a really nice trip with the speed in here. I expect her to run them all down under the lights at Churchill. Lots of ways to go with exotics.
Final Selections

Miss Match
Royal Delta
Pachattack

Remember when this race is over, regardless of how you fared on day 1 that there are 9 more Breeders' Cup races on Saturday with 2 additional stakes at Churchill and stakes around the country. So you can always double up to get up on Saturday.

Good luck.

Saturday, November 21, 2009